One of the worst-kept secrets ahead of the 2024 election is that, albeit for different reasons, both Democrats and Republicans are strategizing how they can best use Vice President Kamala Harris to mobilize their respective bases.
Indeed, given President Biden’s age, and Harris’ poor polling numbers – just 29% of registered voters have a favorable opinion of the VP according to a recent NBC News poll – Republicans are framing a vote for Biden as a vote for Harris, with considerable success. Nearly three-quarters (72%) of registered voters agree with the statement, “A vote for Joe Biden is really a vote for Kamala Harris because he will likely not serve a full second term,” per Harvard/HarrisX polling.
And while it remains to be seen whether or not this attack remains effective, Harris’ role as a GOP ‘boogeyman’ means that Democrats must be incredibly strategic in how they use her on the campaign trail if they hope to retain control of the White House.
Put another way, Harris will be most impactful – and beneficial to Democrats – by using her influence in areas where she has the most appeal: With young, liberal, voters in urban areas in key swing states – Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania – to showcase her ability to bring out the party’s young, liberal, and Black base, which has soured on Biden in recent months, particularly in light of his position on the Israel-Hamas war, according to New York Times/Siena polling.
In fact, despite her struggles with the wider electorate, recent Economist/YouGov polling has found that Harris remains popular among liberals (74% favorable), Democrats overall (73%), and her 57% favorability among Black voters is nearly double her overall numbers and may help Harris drive turnout among these key groups in 2024.
It is impossible to understate the importance of those demographics if Biden and Harris want any chance of winning next year, and they are also among the top groups of voters where Biden has seen the most erosion in support.
In 2020, 87% of Black voters voted for Biden, but as the New York Times/Siena poll reveals, Biden may not be able to count on the same levels of support next year. Three-quarters (75%) of Black voters now say they’d back Biden, with 17% of Black voters saying they’d support Trump, which would be the highest share of Black support for a GOP presidential candidate since 1976.
Among voters under 30 years old, Biden’s problems are even deeper. In 2020, Biden won 60% of voters under 30 years old, whereas today, per NYT/Siena, just 43% of voters under 30 say they’d support Biden, compared to 49% saying they would vote for Donald Trump.
Moreover, with slightly more than one-third (34%) of Democrats saying they have doubts about Biden’s mental fitness to hold office, Harris could prove essential in reversing Biden’s problems with Black and young voters, and if she displays impressive leadership abilities on the trail, may ease voters’ concerns over Biden’s age.
Of course, 2024 is also a chance for Harris to show the Democratic establishment that she can be a leader and make her own case for 2028, which is even more important given the growing national profile of California Governor Gavin Newsom.
That being said, Harris is not as weak of a candidate as her polling might suggest. If Joe Biden was not running, Harris stands out as the preferred candidate to fill the top spot on the ticket. In a 15-candidate horse race which tested Democratic voters’ top candidate should Biden withdraw, nearly 3-in-10 (28%) Democrats chose Harris, 16-points ahead of second place Hillary Clinton, and 21-points ahead of Newsom, per the aforementioned Harvard/Harris X poll.
While Harris’ low poll numbers are concerning, they do not show the entire picture. During the first year of the administration, Harris was tasked with issues like fixing the Southern border, and diplomacy and democracy within Central America. These are long standing global issues that no administration has been able to get right, or even dared to touch, in recent history.
Since that first year, Harris has reshaped her position in the administration, taking on the role of the traveling bully pulpit, particularly on hot-button social issues where she has proven quite capable. Harris has gone into enemy territory for Democrats, such as Florida, to call out controversial GOP policies on abortions, guns, and voting rights.
And while Harris’ improved visibility and effectiveness in this new role has not yet translated into significant increases in her polling numbers, the media’s perception of Harris began to improve throughout the summer, and will likely continue to, assuming Democrats continue using her in this way.
Ultimately, the full impact of Harris on Biden’s reelection campaign remains to be seen, but there is little doubt that she will play an outsized role for both parties, with Republicans looking to capitalize on her overall unpopularity and Democrats desperate for her to mobilize voting blocs that have begun turning away from Joe Biden.
That said, if used appropriately, Harris may prove vital in helping endear certain groups of voters to Biden, helping him in must-win states and potentially even boosting Democratic House and Senate candidates on the way to securing another term in office and possibly positioning herself as the firm candidate to replace Biden as the leader of the Democratic Party in 2028.
Douglas Schoen is a Democratic political consultant.
