The war between Israel and Hamas is about much more than Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack and Israel’s response. It is also about Iran’s role as the key foreign policy challenge facing the United States today.
Put another way, Iran sits at the center of two wars involving American allies – Ukraine and Israel – and its alliance with Russia, China, Syria, and North Korea in a new ‘axis of evil’ is a direct threat to the national security of the United States and our allies, but also to global peace and security.
The budding relationship between these nations, including Iran’s proxy forces was made evident this month when the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels, which have targeted dozens of commercial and military ships and effectively shuttered the Red Sea, announced that Russian and Chinese ships would be spared and can transit freely.
Indeed, Iran has continued selling drones to Russia for use against Ukraine in that war’s third year, and Tehran’s support for Hamas and Hezbollah enabled the Oct. 7 attack and subsequent war, while turning Hezbollah into a terrorist group more heavily armed than dozens of countries.
Further, in what is an existential threat to many countries in the Middle East, including American allies Israel and Saudi Arabia, IAEA inspectors remain barred from monitoring Iran’s nuclear program, which, according to AP reports, now has enough enriched uranium for at least three nuclear weapons, which, thanks to cooperation with North Korea, Iran may soon have the ability to put onto ballistic missiles aimed at Israel and the U.S.
Likewise, Iranian commandos remain entrenched in Syria, ferrying Shia fighters from Iraq and Afghanistan to Damascus to prop up dictator Bashar Al-Assad and transport weapons to Hezbollah. Iranian oil also continues flowing to China in a mutually-beneficial economic agreement that provides Beijing with cheap energy and Iran with a way around international sanctions.
Plainly, to meet the threat posed by the Iranian regime, existing sanctions must be tightened, possibly even extended to countries and institutions which do business with Iran such as China and Qatar.
Above all, the Mullahs in Tehran should be fully aware that if they continue their malign activities, they are risking a direct clash with the United States, including possible strikes on Iran’s energy or nuclear facilities, or even Iran’s spy ships in the Red Sea, which are suspected of providing the Houthis with intelligence and targeting information.
Historically, Iran has sought to test the limits of what the U.S. would allow, and unfortunately, our leaders have generally allowed the Islamic regime to do so. However, history has also made it clear that in the face of an American military response – such as former President Reagan’s decision to destroy a significant number of Iranian naval and energy assets – the regime backs down.
Confronting Iran with anything less than a credible military threat risks allowing Iran – and its proxies – to soon be protected by a nuclear umbrella, and by that point, it may be too late to roll back Iranian forces.
As I wrote three months ago, immediately after Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack, President Biden’s efforts to deter Iran and their proxies began as admirable. The president ordered an unprecedented large show of force – the deployment of two aircraft carrier strike groups into the Mediterranean Sea – and explicitly warned Iran and its proxies not to even think about taking advantage of Oct. 7 to widen the war.
Yet, nearly six months later, Iran’s free hand to cause chaos remains intact. Its Hezbollah allies have continued launching rockets into Northern Israel, American forces in the region have been subjected to hundreds of attacks, and the Houthis recently doubled down on their threat to target any ship in the Red Sea.
It is easy to understand why Iran feels they can sow disorder without any fear of a direct clash with the United States. Biden has repeatedly failed to establish any semblance of deterrence vis-à-vis Iran, including his latest approval of a sanctions waiver granting Tehran access to $10 billion, and according to one former CENTCOM official, the president has consistently denied military leaders’ plans to hit Iran where it would “really inflict pain” and “send a message.”
At this point, it is legitimate to wonder not what Biden’s red line is, that if crossed, would invite an American military response, but if a red line exists at all.
Importantly, this is not to advocate for preemptive strikes on Iran or the start of another war in the Middle East, however, Biden’s consistent refusal to even threaten military action directly against Iran is a deafeningly loud message to Tehran that they have a free hand to continue sowing chaos.
Moreover, with slightly more than seven months before the presidential election, and the left-flank of Biden’s own party in open revolt over his support for Israel, the chances that the White House takes a tougher stance towards Iran shrinks every day, no matter Tehran’s role as the main protagonist of the chaos engulfing the Middle East.
That said, it is more likely that Biden will only further retreat from his initial support of Israel and increase his pursuit of diplomacy with the regime in Tehran, following the misguided belief that if he appeases Iran, attacks on commercial shipping will end, American troops will no longer be targeted, and if the war in Gaza does not end, at least it will be contained.
Ultimately, while diplomacy should always be the first – and second – option before military strikes, unless the administration is clear eyed about Iran’s efforts, and is equally clear that further strikes by Iran or its proxy forces will invite a devastating response from the U.S., Iran will have no reason to cease their targeting of American forces, attacks on Israel and Ukraine, or its support of terrorism around the world.
Douglas Schoen is a longtime Democratic political consultant.
